The seat-share estimates given by SWG, which suggest that the centre-right would win 176 seats, seem slightly optimistic. They give more seats to the centre-right than they would win if we assume a uniform national swing of 5.15% and a 9:33 split between the radical left and the centre left. Here’s how I worked it [...]
Now that the two chambers of Parliament have been dissolved and the election called for the 13th and 14th April, we can expect more polling to be carried out. There have been five vote intention polls published on www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/ since the beginning of January. They do indeed show a big lead for Berlusconi, as has [...]