Excellent editorial by Ilvo Diamanti in today’s Repubblica, which really catches the novelty of this electoral campaign:

For the first time since 1994, we are witnessing a change of tendencies: a change from the coalition to the party, or, at least, to the common list…. The push made by the Partito Democratico has produced deeper and more rapid effects than had been expected. Within the coalition. It has marginalized the opportunistic fragments. It has led the parties of the left to coalesce, in “justified self defence”. It has, moreover, affected the centre-right. Pushing Berlusconi to promote, without reserve, the Partito della Libertà. His personal party, enlarged to include Alleanza Nazionale and local and individualist remnants across the country. Whilst Casini, for now, hesitates, fearing that his party will lose. And that he will lose his party. Yet, at the end, he too will sign up too. As always.

Per la prima volta dal 1994, infatti, si assiste a un’inversione di tendenza: il passaggio dalla coalizione al partito; o, perlomeno, alla lista comune. …
la spinta impressa dal Pd ha prodotto effetti più rapidi e profondi del previsto. Dentro la coalizione. Ha emarginato i frammenti opportunisti. Ha indotto i partiti di sinistra ad aggregarsi, per “legittima difesa”. Ha, inoltre, contagiato il centrodestra. Spingendo Berlusconi a promuovere, senza indugi, il PdL. Il suo partito personale, allargato ad An e alle schegge politiche localiste e individuali, diffuse nel Paese. Mentre Casini, per ora, tituba. Teme che il suo partito si perda. E di perdere il partito. Ma alla fine, pensiamo, aderirà anche lui. Come sempre.

The effect of the new (most recent?) electoral law will be felt particularly strongly amongst the radical left, the Sinistra Arcobaleno. Whilst part of a centre-left coalition capable of polling 40 – 60% in all regions, they would be guaranteed of meeting the two thresholds for seat allocation in the Senate: part of a coalition with at least 20% of the vote, and polling more than 3% as a coalition member. The Sinistra Arcobaleno, however, would never clear the 20% threshold as a coalition; as a single list, however, it would probably meet the separate 8% threshold for non-coalition lists.

(That is, unless there are fake coalitions at regional level in the Senate between the Partito Democratico and the Sinistra Arcobaleno. But left voters / Repubblica readers don’t seem to like that).