No new polls published today on sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it. Instead, there’s news on coalition tactics: the centre-right can still eke out a majority in the Senate with the vote-share its projected, and the UDC and Rosa Bianca may be close to an agreement.

First, the PdL. Representatives from Forza Italia and Alleanza Nazionale have been working on joint lists for the Senate and the Camera. Why is this important? It’s a zero-sum game between the two parties for the soul of the PdL. Who can place which candidates, where? Forza Italia will try to emphasise that it is the larger party; AN will try to emphasise that its candidates have better local links, so can pull up the ticket.

There are also suggestions – not yet, as far as I’m aware, confirmed by any wire copy, so  now with wire confirmation but still probably to be taken with a pinch of salt – that the Lega and the PdL may run separately – that is, without a formal coalition tie – in order to maximise their seats in the North.

Why would this happen? The PdL could likely win Lombardy and perhaps the Veneto with or without the Lega. However, if the Lega runs in coalition with the PdL in Lombardy, then the coalition as a whole can’t win more than 55% of the seats, which is the regional premium. If the Lega ran separately, it would pick up seats on its own, and the PdL would still win the premium, resulting in a net gain for the coalition.

What are the risks? The danger is that the Lega, by running separately, might fail to meet the more onerous 8% threshold for independent lists, instead of the 3% threshold for lists within a coalition.

Other interesting developments – Bruno Tabacci has started laying the ground for a deal with the UDC on his blog, and the UDC show it is willing to compromise on the local level.