Feb
28
2008

Italian polling update, 28-02-08: 8% gap

Two new polls added today from Ipsos and Crespi. The gap between the two coalitions has levelled off. According to the trend line, the PdL has an eight point advantage over the PD and friends.

Latest polling 28-02-08, thumbnail

Two things to note. First, the Sinistra Arcobaleno is having a bad campaign so far. Bertinotti doesn’t sound enthused about the campaign. If this is an election about change or discontinuity, Bertinotti is ill-placed to exploit it.

Second, Crespi gives some really strange results. His figures for the Partito Socialista, the UDC, the Rosa Bianca and Storace’s Destra are all above trend, particularly the last of these. Crespi gives them 3.3 – 3.6 %, whilst other pollsters have them at between 1 and 1.75%. We can’t tell from the information available how respondents are being stratified: is he over-sampling the elderly?

posted in election, italy, polling by Chris

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