One new poll from Demopolis (fieldwork 25th to 28th, not yet posted on www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it) shows the gap between the two coalitions holding at 8%.

How does this translate into seats in the Senate? In previous projections, I had assumed that the Senate seats abroad would remain roughly as they were. However, Roberto D’Alimonte suggests that the split will favour the centre-right, which will not be divided as it was in 2006, when it ran candidates from Forza Italia, “Per Italia nel Mondo” (Tremaglia, not to be confused with Sergio de Gregorio’s Italiani nel Mondo), and the Lega Nord separately.
I’ve come round to D’Alimonte’s way of thinking, and have consequently given the centre-right two additional seats in North America and the Rest of World. This gives them 158 seats on their current vote shares.

What price the PdL will have to pay to these smaller groups is not clear. The PdL has agreed on a 70:30 split between Forza Italia and Alleanza Nazionale candidates, which compares favourably for Alleanza Nazionale to the two parties’ vote shares in 2006, perhaps reflecting the party’s greater territorial rootedness. Even worse for the FI, it has to find space for numerous partitini. Barbara Fiammeri lists [half-way down the page] a string of parties with minimal electoral appeal which will nevertheless blackmail FI into giving them seats.

209 seats [amongst the 340 they expect to win in the Camera] will go to Forza Italia, which nevertheless also includes 15 to 20 seats to give to the minor formations (Rotondi’s Dca, Mussolini’s Azione Sociale, La Malfa and Nucara’s Pri, Fatuzzo’s Pensionati, Caldoro’s Nuovo PSI, Dini’s Liberaldemocratici, and De Gregorio’s Italiani nel Mondo).

Meanwhile, in the center, the Rosa Bianca and the UDC have agreed to present a joint list. The Rosa Bianca adds about one percentage point to the UDC; the new formation has a chance of overtaking the Sinistra Arcobaleno as the third largest political grouping.