Dal Legno Storto:

C’e’ chi, come Claudio Tito su Repubblica, racconta di un sondaggio commissionato da Silvio Berlusconi a un’agenzia americana che preconizza il rischio ‘pareggio’ al Senato. E chi, come Augusto Minzolini sulla Stampa, racconta che dentro il Pdl inizia a trapelare qualche preoccupazione per una vittoria data troppo per scontata, che potrebbe trasmettere un messaggio sbagliato agli elettori di centrodestra, spingendoli all’astensionismo.

There are those – like Claudio Tito in the Repubblica, who talk of a poll commissioned by Berlusconi from an American company which recognises the risk of a pareggio in the Senate. And then there are those, like Augusto Minzolini in La Stampa, who note that signs are emerging from within the PdL of growing concern about taking victory for granted, which could result in the wrong message being given to centre-right voters, pushing them into abstaining.

The Penn Schroeder Borland poll from 2006 – well out of line with other polls and grossly favourable to Berlusconi – was one of the few to model likely turnout. Differential turnout may ultimately be more telling than variations in repeated polling.