The penultimate day in which polls can be publicised, and a number of new polls mean – surprise surprise! – little change to the gap between the PdL and the PD, which remains at 7.3%.

I’m still projecting a majority for the PdL, but I’m less confident of this judgement for reasons noted in the last post – that, essentially, the game will be won or lost in Lazio, and we just don’t have information to judge that.

Additionally, seat estimates for the Sinistra Arcobaleno and the UDC are below what the parties themselves are predicting.  Not too surprising, perhaps,  but the UDC claims that their votes will be determining in the Senate, so they clearly expect more than 2 seats. A strong showing in Sicily, certainly, but where else?