Now that polls can no longer be published, we can take a final look at our trend line, and see where it is:

How exciting: the trend is exactly where it was before the polls were added, with a gap of 7.3%. And, indeed, before the previous batch of polls was added.

If you believe that there will be a uniform national swing – and if you believe that the Destra’s role in Lazio will be inconsequential – then bet on a narrow majority for the PdL in the Senate, with 164 seats compared to the cut-off point, 158. Hopefully over the next couple of days I’ll be looking at the polls in retrospective, and seeing how much confidence we can attach to each pollster’s estimate.