Un benvenuto ai lettori della Repubblica, and welcome to readers of the FT. You might find the following posts interesting:
Polling accuracy: what happened last time.
Where the battleground regions are
A post on methodology
Further notes on methodology are available in the last polling round-up, available here.
UPDATE: There’s a reason academics shouldn’t blog so much. I’ve now realised that the analysis below is mistaken; I had calculated the variance of Callegaro and Gasperoni’s measure incorrectly. The revised picture – which I’m still working on – consequently looks a lot flatter, with little or no change over the last fifteen days of [...]