Gianni Alemanno (ex-Fascist, subsequently AN, now PdL) has won the run-off election for the mayoralty of Rome. It’s a pretty poor result for the left, and a poor personal result for Rutelli – he didn’t do as well as his party colleague Nicola Zingaretti, who was running for the President of the Province of Rome [...]
One of the blessings of a two party system is that you only need two colours to colour the political map.
Not so with Italy.
The PDF file linked to below contains five maps of support for each of the main parties; they’ve been scaled so that provinces with the highest share for that party have been [...]
I’ve been working on some ecological inference from the aggregate data on the Camera to individual vote switches. I’ve got a very early draft which I’m posting. Vote shifts, 2006-2008 needs some work, especially on the diagnostics for the two different models – but here’s the abstract:
Using data from exit polls and two different methods [...]
For those who are interested: 2008 electoral results by comune, Camera, zip file. The results were scraped from the Ministry of the Interior website using a quick Perl program, then transposed in R.
When the Prodi government fell, I posted a note explaining how the government’s duration could have been predicted by models from political science. I thought I would do the same for the Berlusconi government now that we know the seat distribution in the Senate.
The model [King et al. 1990] depends on seven variables. The [...]
Four types of regions:
regions the PD + IdV did relatively well in – that is, regions in which they increased their vote by more than they did nationally, in order: Lazio, Marche, Toscana, Umbria.
regions the PD + IdV did relatively poorly in – that is, regions in which they increased their vote by less than [...]
I’m still trying to find out whether deluded former Communist voters switched to the Lega. Two points from today’s Repubblica:
“The Sinistra Arcobaleno has lost something like 2,395,932 votes compared to 2006. Bertinotti and co have seen almost 61.5% of the savings they have cashed in in 2006 disappeared. And, more worrying, this figure is the [...]
Now that the final results are (almost) in, let’s take a look at what happened. Easing gently in, let’s start by comparing the poll averages with the final results for each party:
Party
Last point on the trend line
Actual vote-share, Camera
Difference
Sinistra Arcobaleno
6.863%
3.084%
-3.779
Partito Democratico
34.040%
33.174%
-0.876
Lega Nord
5.060%
8.297%
3.237%
Italia dei Valori
3.350%
4.371%
1.02%
Popolo delle LibertÃ
38.974%
37.388%
-1.58%
UDC
5.917%
5.624%
-0.294%
If there was no movement over the last two weeks [...]
2:45pm. Turnout was down four points on two years ago at ten o’clock last night.
Clemente Mastella is on Tg2, as a commentator. Che bello!
Exit poll for Tg2: Senato PD 36.5- 42.5 versus PDL 39 – 46.
Sinistra Arcobaleno collapses (5); IdV does well (3-4%), but better in the Camera. Destra also does well, polling [...]
Repubblica.it reports that turnout at 19.00 is down 3.5 points from 2006, from 52.2% to 48.7%. If turnout is lower than it was two years ago, who benefits?
The ‘common wisdom‘ in political science is that higher turnout benefits centre-left parties. But Italy may defy the common wisdom – two years ago, Berlusconi presaged that he [...]