Now that the polls have closed, we’re forced to look at other methods of predicting the outcome of the election. One increasingly popular method is to use betting markets to assess implied probabilities.
The chart below shows the implied probability from Betfair.com. The red line is Berlusconi, the blue, Veltroni.
As you can see, there’s been a slight uptick in the implied probability of Veltroni winning, and a corresponding downturn in the implied probability for Berlusconi, since the date of poll embargo (Sat 29th). Now, you can’t make a poll from a probability, so we can’t work out how this would change the trends we last observed.
But we should note that the betting markets have tended to rate the implied probability of Berlusconi winning slightly lower than the implied probability resulting from the polls (which is the poll estimate minus the critical value at which a majority is attained (around 41%), divided by the standard error, which gives you a Z-score, which you can transform into a probability with this table). So, if you believe the polls are correct, you should be putting money on Berlusconi to win, because it’s going cheap.
Comments 11
Polls atren’t closed for you! You can do amy polls.
Posted 06 Apr 2008 at 1926 ¶Polls are not allowed in Italiy but not out of it.
Plese make a polls on Itlaian Election and pubblic it!
Yoa are foregin so you can do a poll!
Polls aren’t closed for you! You can do any poll.
Posted 06 Apr 2008 at 1928 ¶Polls are not allowed in Italiy but not out of it.
Plese make a polls on Italian Election and show it us!
You are foreginer so you can do a poll!
Italian low permit you to make and show a poll now becausa you aren’t italian.
Posted 06 Apr 2008 at 1929 ¶Show us the sondage about italian parties we cannot read in Italy you instead are a liberal state and not a berlusconi’s country
Posted 07 Apr 2008 at 1957 ¶dear francesco i want to tell u only a thing
Posted 11 Apr 2008 at 956 ¶la legge che vieta i sondaggi è del 2000..indovina un po’ chi governava?
informati prima di parlare!!!!
i want to tell all the people the law that forbid polls is Legge n. 28 in vigore dal 23 febbraio 2000 when we have a link goverment .
in Italy are also forbidden tv spot, and there is another law called “par conditio” that says everybody had to have the same tv space.
a party with 1% must have the same space of a 30% party…perfectly democratic and as the other law approved by a link government.
at this election we have 4-5 different communist party like everywhre in Europe :))
Leonardo can’t speak English and should think a little more before writing posts on the internet. He’s obviously a supporter of Berlusconi’s (they mostly come from a lower cultural background and have no respect for laws and institutions).
Dear Leonardo… Berlusconi keeps violating the polls law by reporting polls in his speeches even after the curfew without giving any evidence… this is political use of non-verifiable data. Exactly what the 2000 law wanted to prevent.
Speaking of “par conditio” (equal opportunity)… think of how precious such a law would be if the country had a tycoon who controls most means of information (oh, wait, that’s actually what’s happening today!). If no regulation were in place, the tycoon could prevent new/alternative political views to reach the public arena. What a great democracy that would be!
An article on the “Corriere della Sera Magazine” from yesterday reads: ‘Berlusconi is the leader of a politically-incorrect, of nepotism, recommendations and personal favours. A large slice of popular electorate who doesn’t care about international reputation (see rude gestures at international head-of-state meetings), laws to protect individual interests, antidemocratic, later rephrased, statements’.
In a nutshell, that’s what we have seen between 2001-2006 and what we will see in the next five years if Berlusconi wins again. Anyone else. I mean it, ANYONE ELSE would be better.
I really don’t know why so many Italians still trust him.
I’m migrating overseas if he goes back in office, I have already put a deposit on a flight. I don’t want to be here to see another 5 years of inexorable decline for my beloved country.
Posted 11 Apr 2008 at 1130 ¶Bye bye Andrea we will not miss you!
By the way I am one of those “coming from a lower cultural background”.
Sorry! I am university graduated (electronic engineer) and able to speak English as you are. Maybe you have never seen any article on the brilliant performances of your chap Prodi!
Look at it. Is fun.
Francesco
Posted 11 Apr 2008 at 1400 ¶Okay, I’m now closing comments on this post. Do however feel free to make on-topic comments on other posts.
Posted 11 Apr 2008 at 1402 ¶You should try to connect Betfair.com from an italian server.
Surprise…Censura: a messege from italian govern will tell you: SITO NON RAGGIUNGIBILE - CONNECTION NOT ALLOWED
it’disgusting! We are in Europe not in China!!
Posted 13 Apr 2008 at 901 ¶Hi people, any of you know where can I find latest poll made outside of Italy.. I mean.. a 11/13 th of april poll?
Posted 14 Apr 2008 at 1252 ¶Unfortunately there are no such polls: no one outside of italy wants to spend money polling italian voters; and no-one in italy who can spend such money can show such polls. IPR has done some confidential polling, but obviously won’t release this. Anyway, the exit poll is in an hour’s time.
Posted 14 Apr 2008 at 1256 ¶Post a Comment