Roberto D’Alimonte has been arguing that the outcome of the elections to Italian senate are a ‘lottery’, product of a fundamentally flawed electoral law, and thus almost impossible to predict.
I agree that the current electoral law is flawed insofar as it makes it extremely difficult to produce any majority. I disagree that it’s impossible [...]
The very clever people at Bayesfor have made projections for the elections, based on presence in the media.The Bayesfor forecast suggests that the PdL will win 44.67%, the PD 38.37%, which is, as they note, more or less in line with polling trends (though slightly more favourable to the PD than my last poll-of-polls suggests).
They [...]