Chris Hanretty

2:45pm. Turnout was down four points on two years ago at ten o’clock last night.

Clemente Mastella is on Tg2, as a commentator. Che bello!

Exit poll for Tg2: Senato PD 36.5- 42.5 versus PDL 39 - 46.

Sinistra Arcobaleno collapses (5); IdV does well (3-4%), but better in the Camera. Destra also does well, polling between 2 and 4 in the Camera.

PdL spokesperson on TG2, sounding cautious. If you plug-in the mid-points of the forchette that they’re giving, the PdL wins 162 seats in the Senate on UNS.

4:01pm. Incredible result that I’d hadn’t noticed until now: if the projections for the Senate are correct, then the PD has overtaken the PdL to become Italy’s largest party.

Exit poll results from ADNKronos:

PDL: 32.5 - 36.5%;

LN: 6-8%;

MPA: 0.5 - 1.5;

Destra: 1.5-3.5%

SA: 4%-6%;

UDC: 4.5% - 6.5%;

P.Soc.: 0.5% -1.5%;

3:20pm. Depressing to watch the Sinistra Arcobaleno spokesperson commenting on the exit poll: they’re having to use the old, “I’m sure the poll results are not quite accurate” line. Programme director asks provocatively whether this result confirms the loss of communism as a political force.

3:23pm. Second exit poll gives slightly closer results: 40.5 - 44.5 versus 37.5 - 41.5, however, the midpoints don’t change.

Key concept of today is the ‘voto utile di protesta’ - vote for the LN, IdV who are parties within coalitions with a chance of winning, but who are not obviously members of the ‘casta’.

3:30pm. Ministry of the Interior gives data saying turnout is down a little over 3 points.

3:31pm. Finocchiaro loses in Sicilia to Raffaele Lombardo (Mpa). No great surprise.

Fioroni (PD) interviewed on Sky; seems relatively happy with the result, and that seems to be the general feeling amongst the commentariat. After all, the coalition is up 2 percentage points relative to where the polls suggested they were two weeks ago.

Exit polls as reported by ADNKronos:

PD 33% - 37%
IdV 3.5% - 5.5%
Totale Veltroni 37.5% - 41.5%
PDL 32.5% - 36.5%
LN 6% - 8%
MpA 0.5% - 1.5%
Totale Berlusconi 40.5% - 44.5%
Destra 1.5% - 3.5%
SA 4% - 6%
UDC 4.5% - 6.5%
P.Soc 0.5% - 1.5%
Altri 3% - 5%

1000 simulations on this basis gives a median projection of 162 seats for the PdL, with a mean of 161.

Information on the methodology of the exit poll: 40,000 electors across the country asked to deposit a replica ballot paper in a sealed envelope. Allows no weighting, but minimizes problem with ‘embarassed’ voters of certain parties. Don’t understand though why they’re giving such wide confidence intervals for the vote intention though.

4:09pm. Giulio Anselmi (La Stampa, appearing on Sky) makes the entirely sensible comment that the centro-destra will be heavily bound to the Lega. Sinistra Arcobaleno commentators are making the same point.

4:15pm. PDL spokespersons are on justifying their relatively poor performance. It’ll be interesting to see whether this relative fall in the PDL vote is due to a collapse in the South, with disaffected former AN voters going elsewhere or just not voting. There have been some grumbles amongst former Forzisti that the Alleanza hasn’t done its homework, and will bear the responsibility should the PDL lose Lazio…

5:05pm. SWG are giving figures which the PDL a better performance. Presumably the difference results from the weighting procedures used by the pollsters. It would be interesting to know if they’ve changed their methodology from last time round - and if so, whether they’re overcompensating for under-sampled centre-right voters.

5:23pm. Looks like the PD+Idv has won the premio in Emilia Romagna - the call for the reverse voto utile - to give votes to Sinistra Arcobaleno to reduce the seats available for the PdL - has not worked.

5:5opm. Depressing viewing for supporters of the UDC, Sinistra Arcobaleno. Projections from all the regions so far show them failing to meet the 8% threshold. Sicily now looks like the UDC’s only chance. The Sinistra Arcobaleno might make it in Toscana, but I tend to doubt it.

6:14pm . PD seems to have won in Ligura, which was one of the key regions in play. PdL + MpA seems ahead in Lazio, but with relatively few constituencies as yet reporting. Strangely, results from Rome are coming in slower than results from the hinterlands - traditionally more to the right.

6:18pm. Results from the Senate coming in first. Almost a third counted now.

7:06pm. SkyTG24 is now projecting 166 seats in the Senate for the PdL + LN, which seems to be even without the seats for Italians abroad. This would be an excellent result for the PdL, and certainly better than one might have expected.

7:08pm. Duncan Weldon writes:

enjoying the live blogging…Worst performing Eurozone market today - Italy.

7:28pm. So, yet again the exit polls have underestimated the centre-right vote. Seems like PdL voters are reticent to declare their preferences even when they’re on top.

7.37pm: Pd wins Toscana, Marche, Umbria, Molise, Basilicata, still in with a chance in Liguria. UDC passes the 8% in Calabria,Sicilia.

7:39pm: Sky tg24 projection revised downwards to 163 seats.

8:00pm. The left seems to have lost Liguria, with less than a hundred sezioni still to count.

8:11pm: Veltroni appears on the podium to prolonged applause. Has telephoned Berlusconi to concede. Thanks PD electors. Rejects interpretations of the lower turnout as a sign of antipolitics. “The right will govern this country”. “The Lega has enjoyed consistent electoral success” [cut to Bossi and Maroni smiling]. “Our result… has been important… a great political rebound”. “Our result in the North has been extremely important… where in the past we’ve been met with. incomprehension”. Promises a constructive opposition. “A challenge to the government to engage in reform”.

8:19pm. SkyTG24: Bertinotti: leaving the leadership of the party.

8:20pm. Paolo Bonaiuti (ex-FI, now PDL) thanks Veltroni for his gesture.

8:25pm. Strapline on SkyTG24 has Fini saying that we should exercise caution about the Senate results.

8:33pm. Livia Turco (PD) expresses disappointment for the result of the Sinistra Arcobaleno. Which I’m sure they’re happy about.

8:35pm. Boselli leaves the leadership of the Partito Socialista, blaming Veltroni for “handing the country to Berlusconi”. I imagine the blood-letting on the left would have been much worse if the Sinistra Arcobaleno had done better; at the moment, they’re probably feeling too depressed to fight. Boselli, on the other hand, got more or less what had been predicted - wipeout, and no representation in either chamber.

8:39pm.Sinistra Arcobaleno predicting no seats in the Camera for the Sinistra Arcobaleno; 2 seats in the Senate for the UDC.