Now that the final results are (almost) in, let’s take a look at what happened. Easing gently in, let’s start by comparing the poll averages with the final results for each party:
Party
Last point on the trend line
Actual vote-share, Camera
Difference
Sinistra Arcobaleno
6.863%
3.084%
-3.779
Partito Democratico
34.040%
33.174%
-0.876
Lega Nord
5.060%
8.297%
3.237%
Italia dei Valori
3.350%
4.371%
1.02%
Popolo delle LibertÃ
38.974%
37.388%
-1.58%
UDC
5.917%
5.624%
-0.294%
If there was no movement over the last two weeks [...]