I’ve been working on some ecological inference from the aggregate data on the Camera to individual vote switches. I’ve got a very early draft which I’m posting. Vote shifts, 2006-2008 needs some work, especially on the diagnostics for the two different models - but here’s the abstract:
Using data from exit polls and two different methods of ecological inference, I demonstrate how Italian voters shifted between 2006 and 2008. In brief, newly formed parties (PdL, PD) were successful in retaining former voters; parties which looked as if they would be penalized by the electoral system (Sinistra Arcobaleno, UDC) were deserted by voters. The relative success of the Lega Nord and Italia dei Valori results from strong performance in retaining their own voters and marginal transfers of votes from their coalition partners
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