The campaign for the European parliament elections continues to lack lustre. There’s been no noticeable decline in the electoral fortunes of the PdL, despite Silvio Berlusconi’s unclear relationship with an 18-year old Neapolitan girl, although the PD continues its (very slight) uptick.

As with last time round, I’m weighting the lowess trend line seen here by the number of respondents in the sample. Unfortunately, one of the polling companies, TermometroPolitico, is using an internet panel; because of the differences in make-up of internet panels compared to phone panels (and neither is perfect), certain cases tend to be weighted more heavily, which means the standard error might still be high even if the number of respondents is large.

At the moment, termometropolitico seems to be weighting on past vote recall and demographics; most phone interviewers just weight on demographics. My only concern about this is that respondents will falsely remember that they voted for the ‘winners’  in 2008, which might depress the centre-right’s vote share. Indeed, Termometropolitico’s estimates for the PdL tend to be on the low side.