After our article on Italian electoral reform was published, I was asked how the results of the Italian election of 2001 would have turned out if the current electoral system had been used. Here’s my very rough answer, which ignores the complexities (too many to be counted) of the ‘porcata’.

Working out the result of the 2001 Italian general election ‘as if’ the  2005 electoral system had been used is tricky for two reasons.

First, had the 2005 electoral system actually been in place, parties would have changed their strategies, and voters might have (re)acted differently. This holds for any exercise of this kind, in Italy or elsewhere.

Second, there were a number of changes of coalition and changes of party identity over this period. This is a particularly Italian problem.

Nevertheless, let’s assume that we can take the coalitions as they were in 2001, and the parties’ share of the proportional vote in 2001, and calculate a distribution of seats on the basis of the electoral law adopted in 2005.

Let’s start with the Chamber of Deputies. The coalition of the centre-right would have won the election, taking 49.5% of the vote and thus winning the majority bonus of 340 seats.

All five parties in this coalition — Forza Italia, Alleanza Nazionale, the Lega Nord, the UDC, and the Nuovo PSI — would have won seats, since the first four would have passed the 2% threshold for parties in a coalition, and the Nuovo PSI would have been admitted as the `largest loser’ in the coalition.

Within this coalition, the seats would have been divided proportionally (largest remainder, IIRC), and so Forza Italia would have had 202 seats (29.4 / 49.5 * 340), Alleanza Nazionale 82,  the Lega Nord 27, the UDC 22, and the Nuovo PSI 7.

Two other lists or coalitions would have won seats — the coalition of the centre-left (35%), and Rifondazione Comunista (5%). Rifondazione Comunista would have got a proportional share of the remaining 290 seats (in 2001 there were not the 12 seats for Italians living abroad), or 5 / 40 * 290, or around 36 seats. The centre-left would have taken the remaining seats.

The Radicals and Italia dei Valori would have (narrowly in the case of the latter) failed to reach the 4% threshold for lists not belonging to a coalition. They would not have won any seats.

For the Senate, it’s more difficult to say, since the parties in the two coalitions ran under a single label. From eye-balling the figures for each coalition, the centre-right would still have a majority in the Senate, since it would be roughly thirty seats short of a majority just on the basis of the majority bonuses in each region alone. Rifondazione Comunista would not have surpassed the 8% threshold in any region, but Italia dei Valori would have met that target in Molise.