Whilst at APSA a friend asked who would win the PD leadership contest. I explained that I thought Franceschini would still squeak it, but that I didn’t have much hard evidence.

I’ve  now found one voting-intention poll, which shows Bersani in front (54%), Franceschini trailing (35%), with Marino putting in a respectable showing (11%). The sample size (N=651) is reasonable for a sub-sample, so it should be reasonably representative.

I doubt there’ll be many polls on the contest given the difficulties of reaching a representative sample of likely primary voters.

Bersani is also still leading in the “invisible primary” , the endorsements contest. From my running tally of Deputies who’ve declared a preference one way or the other, I find:

• 72 deputies in favour of Bersani
• 60 deputies in favour of Franceschini
• 4 deputies in favour of Marino
• 73 deputies undeclared

which, although it shows a closer race than last time, still shows Bersani out in front.