I was inspired by this post at The Monkey Cage to repeat an exercise I’ve previously carried out for Italy: namely, to calculate the expected duration of the new cabinet using some off-the-shelf models. I think it’ll last a full five year term — here’s why.
The LibCon coalition’s first mistake (excepting any original sin) seems to be requiring a supermajority of 55% for motions of no confidence motions of no confidence leading to dissolution. There’s already a protest group.
Andrew Rudalevige explains the significance of 55% very succinctly at the Monkey Cage. (I’m not aware of any other supermajority requirements in [...]