Comments on: Prediction: LibCon coalition to last full parliamentary term http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/05/13/prediction-libcon-coalition-to-last-full-parliamentary-term/ Notes on Italian politics and public broadcasting Wed, 14 Dec 2011 14:44:27 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Chris http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/05/13/prediction-libcon-coalition-to-last-full-parliamentary-term/comment-page-1/#comment-176482 Chris Mon, 17 May 2010 12:25:25 +0000 http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/?p=612#comment-176482 Hi Ron, The model isn't directly affected by the voting system. It's affected indirectly because the voting system changes the effective number of parliamentary parties. If AV were introduced, the ENPP would likely go up very very slightly; if other more proportional systems were introduced, if would go up more. For the distribution -- yeah, I'll need to poke around a bit before I can plot that. Hi Ron,

The model isn’t directly affected by the voting system. It’s affected indirectly because the voting system changes the effective number of parliamentary parties. If AV were introduced, the ENPP would likely go up very very slightly; if other more proportional systems were introduced, if would go up more.

For the distribution — yeah, I’ll need to poke around a bit before I can plot that.

]]> By: Ron Burns http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/05/13/prediction-libcon-coalition-to-last-full-parliamentary-term/comment-page-1/#comment-176477 Ron Burns Mon, 17 May 2010 00:20:41 +0000 http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/?p=612#comment-176477 It's too late and I'm too lazy to research this myself, so briefly, is the model affected by the voting system? Would it be possible too, for you to show the complete distribution? TIA Nice work It’s too late and I’m too lazy to research this myself, so briefly, is the model affected by the voting system? Would it be possible too, for you to show the complete distribution?

TIA

Nice work

]]> By: Chris http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/05/13/prediction-libcon-coalition-to-last-full-parliamentary-term/comment-page-1/#comment-176472 Chris Sun, 16 May 2010 11:40:10 +0000 http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/?p=612#comment-176472 Yep. If you run it for a LibLab minority government, then you plug in the following values: range = 6 incbargain=2 (because it would have been after the ConLib attempt) majority2 = 0 (because it's not rainbow) And you get an expected duration of 1273 days, or three and a half years, with 10th percentile of 134 days, and a 90th percentile of 2930 days. If you assume that it's a rainbow coalition with a majority, then you get almost the same results as the LibCon coalition, largely because the model can't take account of range on other dimensions (centre-periphery). That's a clear limit of abstraction. Yep. If you run it for a LibLab minority government, then you plug in the following values:

range = 6
incbargain=2 (because it would have been after the ConLib attempt)
majority2 = 0 (because it’s not rainbow)

And you get an expected duration of 1273 days, or three and a half years, with 10th percentile of 134 days, and a 90th percentile of 2930 days.

If you assume that it’s a rainbow coalition with a majority, then you get almost the same results as the LibCon coalition, largely because the model can’t take account of range on other dimensions (centre-periphery). That’s a clear limit of abstraction.

]]> By: Alex http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/index.php/2010/05/13/prediction-libcon-coalition-to-last-full-parliamentary-term/comment-page-1/#comment-176471 Alex Sun, 16 May 2010 11:16:24 +0000 http://chrishanretty.co.uk/blog/?p=612#comment-176471 Could you run that one for a Lib-Lab coalition, just out of curiosity? Could you run that one for a Lib-Lab coalition, just out of curiosity?

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