This is why it pays to establish your own micro-party in Italian politics.
And this is when Berlusconi is at his best. It’s not quite the LBJ treatment, but I imagine it’s almost as effective.
This is why it pays to establish your own micro-party in Italian politics.
And this is when Berlusconi is at his best. It’s not quite the LBJ treatment, but I imagine it’s almost as effective.
Except that it appears that Berlusconi is nowhere close to LBJ. As of this afternoon, it’s Fini who has managed to cobble together his own coalition of the center. The fact that they’re abstaining tomorrow should not obscure Berlusconi’s failure to get the UDC and others on board.
At this point, Berlusconi appears to reaching his limits. While he’ll win tomorrow’s vote, it seems to me that an election will have to be called after the recess (September). I won’t speculate on what a late year election would produce in terms of government, though. It seems to me that Italy’s about to enter yet another phase of government by unstable coalition that will make getting anything done even more difficult than it’s been up to now.
Link | August 3rd, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Do you really think we’ll see an election this year?
I think all the people in Futuro e Libertà would have to be very confident about their election prospects. At the moment, they have around 5% of the seats in the Camera, slightly less in the Senate. The one poll which has a hypothetical Fini-only party shows them on seven per cent — more if they can get the UDC on side. But could the UDC and FL really agree on a premiership candidate (and the current electoral law would strongly encourage that, particularly for seats in the Senate)?
Link | August 3rd, 2010 at 7:38 pm
I think there will be an election this year (or in March or April next, at the latest). I don’t disagree with you about Futuro e Libertà , but I don’t think that is the deciding factor in terms of calling an election. Fini has now shown (and so is now confident) that he can stand apart from Berlusconi (with the abstention coalition). He believes that his long term strength will be as a center-right voice of reason against the railings of the Lega Nord’s anti-immigration Federalism and Berlusconi’s personal but ethic- and law-ignoring populism. So I think that he will at some point very soon (September?) withhold a majority from Berlusconi on a confidence vote.
But I think that it will be Berlusconi who will call for elections in a fit of rage against a defiant Fini. In other words, it won’t be because Fini believes that he can somehow replace Berlusconi; it will be because Berlusconi’s ego cannot tolerate defiance.
Link | August 5th, 2010 at 2:02 pm