At the event, I’m going to give a forecast of the results of the Italian elections. You can read the full version of what I’ve written on SSRN (The 2013 Italian elections: a poll-based forecast), or read the abstract below:
I forecast the results of the Italian general election using aggregated polling data. According to this forecast,
- there is an extremely high probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the lower chamber (p ≈ 100%); the probability of the centre-left winning an overall majority in the Senate, however, is extremely low, at 4.5%.
- The centre-left is very likely to lose in Lombardia and the Veneto. It has a two-in-five chance of winning in Sicily.
- The radical left list, Rivoluzione Civile, is unlikely to win seats in the Senate (p = 20.7%). By contrast, the two extreme-right parties which form part of the centre-right coalition (Fratelli d’Italia and la Destra) seem to have a good chance of acquiring representation in the Senate (though not necessarily in the Camera).
- A coalition between the PD and the list led by Mario Monti would be extremely likely to have a majority in the Senate (p = 94.2%). However, this depends on considerable cohesion within the Monti-led list. A coalition which drew only on ‘definite’ Montiani (i.e., not including those placed on the list by the UDC or FLI) would only have a 50:50 chance of a majority, even with support from minor parties on the centre-left.
- Consequently, almost irrespective of the government that forms, fresh elections are likely to be held within the next two years.
As always, I’d appreciate any comments you have. I’ll be picking up some of the issues in this forecasting exercise over the next couple of days.
Update [14/2/2013]: Duncan McDonnell quite rightly points out that Fratelli d’Italia doesn’t have a very strong claim to be considered an extreme right wing party, given that they’re to the left of what was Alleanza Nazionale, and that people like Ignazi had removed AN from their lists of ERWPs.