Regional predictions

February 14, 2013

This is part of a series of posts on predicting the outcome of the Italian election. You can find the first post in this series here.

When giving my predictions for the outcome of the election yesterday, I didn’t give a regional breakdown of the seat shares in each Senate region. Here are the median predictions for each of the ‘ordinary’ regions.

Name

Altri CDX

Destra

Fratelli
d’Italia

Lega

PDL

Altri
CSX

SEL

PD

Lista
Monti

M5S

Rivoluzione
Civile

ABRUZZO 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
4
1
1
0
BASILICATA 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
4
1
1
0
CALABRIA 0
0
0
0
2
0
1
5
1
1
0
CAMPANIA 1
0
1
0
5
0
2
14
3
3
2
EMILIA ROMAGNA 0
0
1
1
3
0
1
12
2
2
0
FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA 0
0
0
1
1
0
1
3
1
0
0
LAZIO 0
0
1
0
5
0
1
15
3
3
0
LIGURIA 0
0
0
0
1
0
1
4
1
1
0
LOMBARDIA 0
1
1
11
14
0
1
11
6
4
0
MARCHE 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
5
1
1
0
MOLISE 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
PIEMONTE 0
0
0
1
3
0
1
12
2
2
0
PUGLIA 0
0
0
0
4
0
2
10
2
2
0
SARDEGNA 0
0
0
0
2
0
1
4
1
0
0
SICILIA 2
0
1
0
10
0
1
4
3
3
0
TOSCANA 0
0
0
0
3
0
1
9
2
2
0
UMBRIA 0
0
0
0
1
0
0
4
1
1
0
VENETO 0
0
1
6
7
0
1
5
2
2
0

Interestingly, I’m showing the Lega as the second largest right-wing party in both Lombardia and Veneto. That prediction was made before the Finmeccanica scandal erupted, which has rather tarnished Maroni’s claim to have rehabilitated the party. So I might be right, but for the wrong reasons.

posted in Uncategorized by Chris

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1 Comment to "Regional predictions"

  1. mario zerilli wrote:

    Grillo is growing up and all depends from Sicilia and Lombardia…. here Maroni is afraid…

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