John Rentoul has put together a very helpful flow-chart intended to help us navigate the thickets of post-electoral coalition formation.

In it, he asks a number of questions about different configurations of parties. I thought I’d try and indicate what the probabilities of these different configurations are, according to the forecasts from electionforecast.co.uk.

Q1: Have the Conservatives plus DUP and UKIP won 323 seats or more?

Very unlikely. The probability of these parties winning 323 seats or more is just 3%.

Q2: Have the Conservatives plus LibDems, DUP and UKIP won 323 seats or more?

Moderately unlikely. The probability of these parties winning 323 seats or more is almost one-third (32%).

Q3: Are the four parties on 321 or 322?

Very unlikely on its own (5%), although obviously this number can be added to the above number.

Q4: Have Labour plus the LibDems and SDLP won 323 seats or more?

Unlikely. The probability of these parties winning 323 seats or more is a little over 12%.

If you follow the most likely outcome at each branching point, these probabilities imply a minority Labour government, with a second election described as “possible”.

## 3 thoughts on “The Rentoul Questions”