John Rentoul has put together a very helpful flow-chart intended to help us navigate the thickets of post-electoral coalition formation.
In it, he asks a number of questions about different configurations of parties. I thought I’d try and indicate what the probabilities of these different configurations are, according to the forecasts from electionforecast.co.uk.
Q1: Have the Conservatives plus DUP and UKIP won 323 seats or more?
Very unlikely. The probability of these parties winning 323 seats or more is just 3%.
Q2: Have the Conservatives plus LibDems, DUP and UKIP won 323 seats or more?
Moderately unlikely. The probability of these parties winning 323 seats or more is almost one-third (32%).
Q3: Are the four parties on 321 or 322?
Very unlikely on its own (5%), although obviously this number can be added to the above number.
Q4: Have Labour plus the LibDems and SDLP won 323 seats or more?
Unlikely. The probability of these parties winning 323 seats or more is a little over 12%.
If you follow the most likely outcome at each branching point, these probabilities imply a minority Labour government, with a second election described as “possible”.