'election' Category
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May172009
Italian polling for EP elections (2)
The campaign for the European parliament elections continues to lack lustre. There’s been no noticeable decline in the electoral fortunes of the PdL, despite Silvio Berlusconi’s unclear relationship with an 18-year old Neapolitan girl, although the PD continues its (very slight) uptick.
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May072009
Italian polling for EP elections
Last year I aggregated the polling data for the general election.
That was fun.
This year, I’m aggregating the polling data for the European Parliament election — the Italian part, anyway.
This is less fun.
As everyone knows, European Parliament elections are second-order elections. Voters use them not to vote on the issues — they don’t know about the [...] -
May232008
Vote transfers between the parties, 2006-2008
Today’s Venerdi in Repubblica has gone to town on the basis of a study released by the Istituto Cattaneo. The study [PDF] is presented misleadingly: the magazine gives only one diagram (for Milan) but the Cattaneo study only gives vote transfers for a number of cities/areas – Milano, Brescia, Como, Varese, Bologna, Modena, and Reggio [...]
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Apr302008
The left loses Rome
Gianni Alemanno (ex-Fascist, subsequently AN, now PdL) has won the run-off election for the mayoralty of Rome. It’s a pretty poor result for the left, and a poor personal result for Rutelli – he didn’t do as well as his party colleague Nicola Zingaretti, who was running for the President of the Province of Rome [...]
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Apr242008
Blue-Red-Green-Cyan-Purple Italy
One of the blessings of a two party system is that you only need two colours to colour the political map.
Not so with Italy.
The PDF file linked to below contains five maps of support for each of the main parties; they’ve been scaled so that provinces with the highest share for that party have been [...] -
Apr232008
Where did the voters go?
I’ve been working on some ecological inference from the aggregate data on the Camera to individual vote switches. I’ve got a very early draft which I’m posting. Vote shifts, 2006-2008 needs some work, especially on the diagnostics for the two different models – but here’s the abstract:
Using data from exit polls and two different methods [...] -
Apr182008
2008 electoral data by comune, Camera
For those who are interested: 2008 electoral results by comune, Camera, zip file. The results were scraped from the Ministry of the Interior website using a quick Perl program, then transposed in R.
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Apr172008
Election post-mortem #3: ups and downs in the regions
Four types of regions:
regions the PD + IdV did relatively well in – that is, regions in which they increased their vote by more than they did nationally, in order: Lazio, Marche, Toscana, Umbria.
regions the PD + IdV did relatively poorly in – that is, regions in which they increased their vote by less than [...] -
Apr162008
Election post-mortem #2: Sinistra Arcobaleno
I’m still trying to find out whether deluded former Communist voters switched to the Lega. Two points from today’s Repubblica:
“The Sinistra Arcobaleno has lost something like 2,395,932 votes compared to 2006. Bertinotti and co have seen almost 61.5% of the savings they have cashed in in 2006 disappeared. And, more worrying, this figure is the [...]
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Apr152008
Election post-mortem #1
Now that the final results are (almost) in, let’s take a look at what happened. Easing gently in, let’s start by comparing the poll averages with the final results for each party:
Party
Last point on the trend line
Actual vote-share, Camera
DifferenceSinistra Arcobaleno
6.863%
3.084%
-3.779Partito Democratico
34.040%
33.174%
-0.876Lega Nord
5.060%
8.297%
3.237%Italia dei Valori
3.350%
4.371%
1.02%Popolo delle LibertÃ
38.974%
37.388%
-1.58%UDC
5.917%
5.624%
-0.294%If there was no movement over the last two weeks [...]