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Category Archives: government duration

How long will the Berlusconi government last?

When the Prodi government fell, I posted a note explaining how the government’s duration could have been predicted by models from political science. I thought I would do the same for the Berlusconi government now that we know the seat distribution in the Senate.
The model [King et al. 1990] depends on seven variables. The […]

Posted 18 April 2008 † Chris § italy § berlusconi ‡ Comments (0)

Prodi’s fall: could have done (slightly) better

The fall of the Prodi government was disappointing, but entirely predictable. The aim of lasting for the entire legislative term (5 years) was unrealistic, with less than a 2% chance of success. Conversely, it was 95% certain that the government would fall sometime between September 2007 and May 2009; the most likely date was […]

Posted 06 February 2008 † Chris § statistics § italy § prodi § Uncategorized ‡ Comments (0)