Chris Hanretty

'government duration' Category

• Apr

  18

  2008

  How long will the Berlusconi government last?

  When the Prodi government fell, I posted a note explaining how the government’s duration could have been predicted by models from political science. I thought I would do the same for the Berlusconi government now that we know the seat distribution in the Senate.
  The model [King et al. 1990] depends on seven variables. The [...]

  posted in berlusconi, government duration, italy by Chris

• Feb

  06

  2008

  Prodi’s fall: could have done (slightly) better

  The fall of the Prodi government was disappointing, but entirely predictable. The aim of lasting for the entire legislative term (5 years) was unrealistic, with less than a 2% chance of success. Conversely, it was 95% certain that the government would fall sometime between September 2007 and May 2009; the most likely date was [...]

  posted in government duration, italy, prodi, statistics by Chris