The penultimate day in which polls can be publicised, and a number of new polls mean – surprise surprise! – little change to the gap between the PdL and the PD, which remains at 7.3%. I’m still projecting a majority for the PdL, but I’m less confident of this judgement for reasons noted in the [...]
I return from my Easter break with a bevy of new polls, many of which highly contested, but all of which hardly change the headline figure: the gap remains roughly the same, at 7.5%. Nevertheless, interesting stuff is still going on. The nature of the competition continues to squeeze the smaller parties in this bipolar [...]
New polls from Demopolis, Agron and Makno – the last two of which are new entrants to the race behind the election, the race for least convincing pollster – take the gap up to 8.4%.
Dal Legno Storto: C’e’ chi, come Claudio Tito su Repubblica, racconta di un sondaggio commissionato da Silvio Berlusconi a un’agenzia americana che preconizza il rischio ‘pareggio’ al Senato. E chi, come Augusto Minzolini sulla Stampa, racconta che dentro il Pdl inizia a trapelare qualche preoccupazione per una vittoria data troppo per scontata, che potrebbe trasmettere [...]
Six new polls from six different companies – including one new entrant, Quaeris – mean that the gap now changes marginally to 7.6%. The UDC’s bid to overtake the Sinistra Arcobaleno seems to have come to an end, and the overall picture is one of stability. Note that the latest fieldwork is from three to [...]
New polls from Demopolis, Lorien and Quaeris mean the gap… stays roughly where it was, at 7.4%. Two points to note: first, Quaeris is the nth new polling company we’ve heard from. Other polling aggregators are including polls from gipieffe, another new company, but as they’ve yet to realise any voting intention figures to sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it, [...]
No sooner than two polls push the gap up than two competing polls come along to push it down again. Since Wednesday’s update, new polls from SWG, IPSOS and Demos bring the gap down to 7.4%. The changes (such as they are) are driven entirely by a decline in the PdL’s vote share thanks to [...]
Two new polls from Crespi and Demoskopea take the gap up again to 8.3%. What’s interesting is that, despite the calls to the ‘voto utile’, both coalitions seem to be losing ground to the fringes – on the right, to the Destra, and on the left, to the Sinistra Arcobaleno, which has shot up in [...]
Today’s gap shrinks to 7.9% due to yesterday’s poll from IPR, which has an oversized sample of 2,000 and is weighted accordingly. The most interesting figures, however, don’t concern the headline gap, but rather the differences between the Camera and the Senate. The composition of the electorate for the two chambers is different: one must [...]
Another slight shift in the gap is the result of one new poll from Digis. The gap now stands at 8.2%. More general views on the campaign can be found at this Sunday Business post article, where I’m quoted: A researcher at the Florence-based European University Institute, Chris Hanretty, said the current rash of surveys [...]