Chris Hanretty

'seats' Category

• Feb

  08

  2008

  Italy, seat shares

  The seat-share estimates given by SWG, which suggest that the centre-right would win 176 seats, seem slightly optimistic. They give more seats to the centre-right than they would win if we assume a uniform national swing of 5.15% and a 9:33 split between the radical left and the centre left. Here’s how I worked it [...]

  posted in italy, polling, seats by Chris