Skip to content

Category Archives: statistics

How to lie/mislead with trend lines

Recently, there’s been a minor polling skirmish about the size of the PdL’s lead. As Ilvo Diamanti puts it in a wonderful column,
the polls that Berlusconi personally commissions, projects and releases give the PdL a ten point advantage over the PD. Not 6, as instead suggest the faked polls commissioned by the PD and the […]

Posted 27 February 2008 † Chris § election § polling § italy ‡ Comments (0)

Prodi’s fall: could have done (slightly) better

The fall of the Prodi government was disappointing, but entirely predictable. The aim of lasting for the entire legislative term (5 years) was unrealistic, with less than a 2% chance of success. Conversely, it was 95% certain that the government would fall sometime between September 2007 and May 2009; the most likely date was […]

Posted 06 February 2008 † Chris § government duration § italy § prodi § Uncategorized ‡ Comments (0)