• The “processo breve” is a bargaining tool. Offering to remove it from the agenda can be seen as a concession; a concession can win quick approval of a text of “legitimate impediment”.
• The bill on “legitimate impediment” (repeated postponement of trial hearings due to demands of government office) is unconstitutional, and Berlusconi’s circle knows this
• Legitimate impediment might be declared unconstitutional, but by the time that happens, a new constitutional amendment (lodo Alfano-bis) will guarantee prime ministerial immunity
• Once this is all passed, Berlusconi will call early elections in 2011, and then wait for the presidential elections of 2013. Assuming he gets that, he’ll be with us until 2020.

Nice to see someone from the centre-right putting these things down in black and white. [h/t Mattia Guidi]

Berlusconi, according to the usual unnamed sources, wants Fini to be punished, even to the point of requiring him to step down as President of the Chamber of Deputies.

I think this is unlikely. As far as I can see, no President of the Chamber of Deputies has ever resigned, unless to take up another, better post. Three Presidents of the Senate have resigned (Merzagora, Paratore and De Nicola), but Paratore and De Nicola both resigned in protest; only Merzagora’s resignation is surrounded by question-marks (I’m following Wikipedia here).

Nor is there any provision in the Chamber’s rules of procedure to vote no-confidence in the President of the Chamber.

Neither side wins from a protracted fight. I’m betting this blows over.

The police officers had been stupid enough to offer the photos to the print media, including Chi magazine, which is part of the Mondadori group.

The editor of the magazine told Berlusconi, who then warned Marrazzo.

Somewhat improbably, Berlusconi exits best from this whole mess. It is, however, yet another example of Berlusconi’s phenomenal reach over the Italian media, and the degree to which Berlusconi’s subordinates – in this case editor Alfonso Signorini, via Marina Berlusconi – will inform him of what’s going on in their publications.

Now, Berlusconi might have already got what he wanted. The immunity bill stalled existing trials, and now they’d have to run pretty fast to finish before the statute of limitations kicks in. But if he wants to be on the safe side, he’d better amend the constitution.

Problem is, that’s quite difficult. Constitutional amendments can be passed by a majority of both houses after two readings, but it only needs a very small minority in the Parliament to put the amendment to a referendum. And if a referendum were held solely on the issue of immunity, I don’t think even Berlusconi could pull of a victory.

So the strategy seems to be to wrap a whole load of institutional reforms into a much larger constitutional amendment, involving some kind of direct election of the head of government, get that approved by the Parliament lickety-split, and then go to the people arguing that the constitutional reforms are necessary for better governance.

That’s easier, but not much easier. The centre-right tried constitutional reform before, in 2005, but the provisions in federalism were unpopular in the south, and the reform was voted down. If Bossi can be muzzled, and if the provisions on what Berlusconi calls “presidentialism” are remotely sane (and they might not be), then the reform might go ahead. But I doubt it.