Some people are upset about the way in which Berlusconi was forced to leave office. Those who are upset fall into two camps. One left-leaning camp is upset that Berlusconi was forced out by bond traders. One right-leaning camp (at least the version I read today in the Telegraph) is upset that Berlusconi was forced out by `Europe’, broadly defined.

I think it’s broadly correct to say that Berlusconi had to leave because the cost of servicing Italian debt had grown to unsustainable levels. But I think that saying baldly that the markets made Berlusconi resign is too simplistic.

First, had it not been the markets, it might well have been something else. At the beginning of Berlusconi’s tenure, I tried to predict how long his government would last, based on certain universal characteristics well-known to predict government duration. I predicted that his government was 95% certain to fall before January 2012. I later thought that he was close to resigning when he was charged for abuse of office and for paying for an under-age prostitute. He wasn’t, and didn’t. But the point still stands. Had the credit crisis not erupted, another parochial crisis might have done Berlusconi in.

Second, Berlusconi reaped a whirlwind of his own sowing. A lot of things had to happen for Berlusconi to be forced out. Not the least of these is the fact that Italian debt had to grow to considerable levels. Berlusconi has some responsibility for this. The second-most important relationship in Italian politics has been between Berlusconi and Giulio Tremonti (the most important is the relationship between Bossi and Berlusconi). Tremonti has always been on the side of fiscal probity. Berlusconi has consistently opposed him (not, I believe, because of any ideological differences, but simply because he resents being beholden to someone who is not disposable, who understands his brief and who commands some respect in the markets).

Third, Berlusconi was already politically weakened. Berlusconi started this legislature with 344 deputies in his majority, 28 more than he needed for a majority. He has frittered away that majority by consistently marginalizing Gianfranco Fini, causing supporters of the latter to leave the PdL and form their own party. Some of those people Berlusconi won back. That’s consistent with the idea of Berlusconi as a great salesman, and a great tactician but poor strategic. His utter neglect of strategy means that he has put himself at the mercy of a number of centrists who have little idea of loyalty. Berlusconi should know this well — he tried to bribe many of these people to bring about the fall of the second Prodi government in 2008.

Bond markets have a lot of influence in politics. It’s right for people to follow them, and their effects. But we shouldn’t ignore the effects of domestic factors. Markets might have pushed Berlusconi over the cliff. But politically, no one was there to catch him when he fell.

I don’t agree with the Economist on everything. But they have been consistently on target in their coverage of Berlusconi.

le dichiarazioni testimoniali… fanno ritenere che Minetti Nicole, in concorso con Fede Emilio e Mora Dario ['Lele'], nonché in concorso con ulteriori soggetti, abbia continuativamente svolto un’attività di induzione e favoreggiamento della prostituzione di soggetti maggiorenni, e della minore EL MAHROUG KARIMA, individuando, selezionando, accompagnando un rilevante numero di giovani donne, che si sono prostitute con Silvio Berlusconi, presso le sue residenze, dietro pagamento corrispettivo in denaro da parte di quest’ultimo.

The testimony given… suggest that Nicole Minetti, in conjunction with Emilio Fede and Lele Mora, as well as in conjunction with further individuals, did continuously induce and lead adults and the minor Karima El Mahroug in to prostitution, identifying, selecting, and accompanying a number of young women who prostituted themselves with Silvio Berlusconi, at his residencies, for a corresponding payment from the aforementioned [Minetti, et al]

• Antonio Razzi – 129161 (bottom 40%)
• Domenico Scilipoti – 86479 (bottom 5%)
• Maria Grazia Siliquini – 129009 (bottom 40%)
• Catia Polidori – 119438 (bottom 20%)
• Massimo Calearo – 119414 (bottom 20%)
• Bruno Cesario – 135036 (bottom 45%)

This is relevant largely thanks to this extraordinary interview with Antonio Razzi, in which he claims that he was offered a write-off on his mortgage in exchange for voting for the government. Which he later did. Any connection is obviously coincidental.

Admittedly, some of the figures strain credulity — I thought Calerao was a big cheese in the world of business, so his declaring so little income is a bit wierd. But there you go.

1. Centre-right w/o Berlusconi (PdL, Lega, Fli, UDC)
2. Technical government (FLI, UDC, Mpa, API, PD)
3. Electoral law reform government (as above, plus IDV)
4. PDL + Lega with dissolution of the Camera

The last strikes me as most fanciful.

And this is when Berlusconi is at his best. It’s not quite the LBJ treatment, but I imagine it’s almost as effective.

Berlusconi wants Fini to leave the post of President of the Chamber of Deputies, but, as I mentioned before, there are no provisions for no-confidencing the President of the Chamber.

Berlusconi’s allies are giving the example of Sandro Pertini, who offered his resignation as President of the Chamber following a split within the PSU (the unified Socialist Party). Read the transcript here.

Of course, perhaps part of the reason Pertini offered his resignation was that he knew it would be rejected. In that case, the comparison might be thought to be a little disingenuous.

• The “processo breve” is a bargaining tool. Offering to remove it from the agenda can be seen as a concession; a concession can win quick approval of a text of “legitimate impediment”.
• The bill on “legitimate impediment” (repeated postponement of trial hearings due to demands of government office) is unconstitutional, and Berlusconi’s circle knows this
• Legitimate impediment might be declared unconstitutional, but by the time that happens, a new constitutional amendment (lodo Alfano-bis) will guarantee prime ministerial immunity
• Once this is all passed, Berlusconi will call early elections in 2011, and then wait for the presidential elections of 2013. Assuming he gets that, he’ll be with us until 2020.

Nice to see someone from the centre-right putting these things down in black and white. [h/t Mattia Guidi]