Abstract
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.
Full-text
The version accepted by the journal can be found here. You can find the (gated) version of record here.
Replication data
Replication code can be found at GitHub
Citation
Hanretty, Chris, Ben Lauderdale, and Nick Vivyan. 2016. “Combining National and Constituency Polling for Forecasting.” Electoral Studies 41 (March): 239–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019.